Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Brewers have to trade Lee

There are very few general managers that would trade the team's most popular player once, much less four years in a row.

But then again, Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin isn't your average general manager.

In the last three years, Melvin has dealt Richie Sexson, Scott Podsednik and Lyle Overbay and received more than market value for all of them. The Sexson deal basically gave the Brewers a new starting lineup they used to stay somewhat competitive. Podsednik brought in Carlos Lee which gave the Brewers the pop it needed in the lineup when Sexson left. And last winter's trade of Overbay brought the team much-needed starting pitching in Dave Bush and Zack Jackson.

It's time for Melvin to work that magic once again with Carlos Lee.

It's going to be tough for the Brewers to resign Lee. He's going to demand a contract of four years, $60-$65 million. The Brewers are going to offer a three-year deal worth around $40-45 million. That extra year is key.

The Brewers can afford to take on Lee's contract for another couple years because they are "underpaying" for players like J.J. Hardy, Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks who won't be arbitration-ready for a few years yet. Eventually, however, they are going to have to pay those guys what they are worth.

At the same time, Melvin can't trade Lee for prospects. The Brewers are at a point where they need guys that can contribute either right away or within a season, otherwise they might miss their window of opportunity to be challenge for the postseason.

Ideally, Melvin would be able to get a starting pitcher in the deal as well as another major-league ready player. That might be a lot to ask, but teams around the deadline tend to be pretty crazy. That being said, here are a few places where Carlos Lee could end up at the end of the month:

St. Louis Cardinals: Sure they are in the same division, but if the Brewers don't trade Lee and don't resign him, chances are he'll sign with the Cardinals or Cubs anyway. St. Louis needs a LF and has ample pitching to trade (Anthony Reyes perhaps).

Chicago White Sox: If there is any team that has ample pitching, it's the White Sox. And with the offseason trade of Aaron Rowand to the Phillies, the Sox could move Scott Podsednik to center if Lee comes back in a deal. But I have a feeling that Ozzie Guillen's ripping of Lee for being soft may be a sign the two will never share a dugout again.

New York Yankees: Injuries have decimated the Yankees' outfield and because Lee is probably the biggest bat available, George Steinbrenner is naturally going to seek him out. There aren't many prospects left in the Yankees organization, but word is the Brewers have an eye on Philip Hughes, a Double-A pitcher. Perhaps if the Yankees threw in a major-league ready pitcher like Scott Proctor, the Brewers would bite.

Texas Rangers: Melvin has raided his old stomping grounds for waiver-wire pickups (Podsednik, Brian Shouse), so maybe its time he give something back. But Texas doesn't have much pitching, and the best name they could offer the Crew is outfielder Kevin Mench.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Orange County of California of the United States: Of all the options, this is the one I like the best, and the one that is the most realistic. The Angels have been shopping around starter Ervin Santana and need a bat in the outfield. With the AL West always up for grabs, the Angels may go for broke this season. If the Brewers can get them to throw in catching prospect Jeff Mathis (who could supplant Chad Moeller as the Brewers No. 2 catcher ASAP), this is a must-deal for the Brewers.

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